Market Validation Meta-Skill
Audit the market-facing sections of the business plan (sections 04, 05, 06, 07) to ensure claims are defensible and data-backed.
When to Use
Invoke AFTER sections 04-07 are complete. This skill reviews market claims and flags issues before investors do.
What to Validate
1. Market Size Validation
- Is TAM calculated using credible methodology?
- Is SAM a logical subset of TAM with clear narrowing criteria?
- Is SOM realistic (typically 1-5% of SAM for startups, not 20%)?
- Are market size sources cited and current (within 2 years)?
- Does bottom-up calculation align with top-down?
2. Growth Rate Validation
- Are growth projections supported by historical data?
- Is the cited CAGR from a reputable source?
- Are growth assumptions internally consistent with the business model?
- Is the business growing faster than the market? If so, why?
3. Customer Assumption Validation
- Are customer personas based on research or assumptions?
- Is the CAC estimate grounded in comparable data?
- Is the CLV calculation realistic given churn assumptions?
- Is the CLV:CAC ratio defensible (>3:1)?
4. Competitive Positioning Validation
- Are all relevant competitors identified (direct, indirect, substitutes)?
- Are competitive advantages genuinely sustainable?
- Are competitor weaknesses based on evidence, not wishful thinking?
- Is the differentiation claim verifiable?
5. Pricing Validation
- Is pricing consistent with the value proposition?
- How does pricing compare to competitors?
- Is there evidence of willingness to pay at this price point?
- Does the pricing model support the revenue projections?
Validation Output Format
For each claim reviewed:
Claim: [The specific assertion]
Source: [Where it appears in the plan]
Evidence: [Supporting data found]
Status: VALIDATED / NEEDS EVIDENCE / UNSUPPORTED / CONTRADICTED
Action: [What to do — cite source, conduct research, revise claim]
Validation Summary Dashboard
| Area | Claims Reviewed | Validated | Needs Evidence | Unsupported | Critical Issues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market size | X | X | X | X | [List] |
| Growth rates | X | X | X | X | [List] |
| Customer data | X | X | X | X | [List] |
| Competition | X | X | X | X | [List] |
| Pricing | X | X | X | X | [List] |
Generation Process
- Review sections 04-07 and extract all factual claims
- Categorise each claim (market size, growth, customer, competitive, pricing)
- Assess evidence for each claim
- Flag unsupported or contradicted claims
- Suggest validation methods for gaps (surveys, interviews, pilot tests)
- Produce validation summary dashboard
Quality Criteria
- Every factual claim is assessed, not just the obvious ones
- Validation is objective — does not rubber-stamp weak claims
- Suggested validation methods are practical and affordable
- Critical issues are highlighted with urgency