Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

Commands

Scan for Edge

/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed

Compare Specific Market

/compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds

Kelly Calculator

/kelly 0.45 0.55 1000
# market price, your estimate, bankroll

Data Sources

Political

• 538/Silver Bulletin - Election models
• RealClearPolitics - Polling averages
• Betting Odds - Pinnacle, offshore books
• PredictIt - Alternative market prices

Economic

• CME FedWatch - Rate probabilities
• Bloomberg Consensus - Economist forecasts
• Treasury Yields - Implied expectations

Sports

• Vegas Lines - Sharp money indicators
• ESPN FPI - Power rankings
• Historical Models - ELO ratings

Examples

User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

Output Format

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll